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The Folly Of Prognostication
By David Hanson, Pres. H2M
"Man will never reach the moon regardless of all future
scientific advances."
-- Dr. Lee DeForest, Inventor of TV
"The bomb will never go off. I speak as an expert in
explosives."
-- Admiral William Leahy, U.S. Atomic Bomb Project
"There is no likelihood man can ever tap the power of
the atom."
-- Robert Millikan, Nobel Prize in Physics, 1923
"I think there is a world market for maybe five computers."
-Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
In this day and age, we see a lot of prognosticators, and
I swear there are more in the field of marketing than almost
anywhere else. I have even seen another marketing company
advertise the position that “Great marketing is being
able to predict everything”. The fact is, you can’t
even predict your next breath. The media spin as in regards
to marketing is so rampant you might tend to actually believe
it. We read bloggers talking about the demise of newspapers
and mass media, and yet, even in my area, the local newspaper
just bought out 4 other regional papers.
The truth is you can try to predict the future all you want
but it’s sheer guesswork and history proves prognosticators
wrong nearly every time. As for great marketing, I would suggest
it is not about prediction at all, but more about human relations
on the psychological and emotional level. You simply can’t
predict human behavior and it’s folly to try.
"I have traveled the length and breadth of this country
and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that
data processing is a fad that won't last out the year."
-- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall,
1957
"But what ... is it good for?"
-- Engineer at the Advanced Computing Systems Division of
IBM, 1968, commenting on the microchip.
"640K ought to be enough for anybody."
-- Bill Gates, 1988
So where is the temptation to predict future events coming
from? Let’s face it, prognostication does make you sound
pretty important, as if you really do have a handle on where
events are going. Most of the prognosticators in marketing
come from those with self-interest in their own predictions.
If you look at the sources for all the futurism, you’ll
find most of it done by websites and bloggers with big vested
interest in convincing the public the future is heading straight
for their company’s products and services. Actually,
it doesn't really even matter if there is any self-interest
or not; the fact remains that you can't predict the future.
"This 'telephone' has too many shortcomings to be seriously
considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently
of no value to us."
-- Western Union internal memo, 1876.
"The wireless music box has no imaginable commercial
value. Who would pay for a message sent to nobody in particular?"
-- David Sarnoff's associates in response to his urgings for
investment in the radio in the 1920s.
"The concept is interesting and well-formed, but in order
to earn better than a 'C,' the idea must be feasible."
-- A Yale University management professor in response to Fred
Smith's paper proposing reliable overnight delivery service.
(Smith went on to found Federal Express Corp.)
"We don't like their sound, and guitar music is on the
way out."
-- Decca Recording Co. rejecting the Beatles, 1962.
"Heavier-than-air flying machines are impossible."
-- Lord Kelvin, president, Royal Society, 1895.
"So we went to Atari and said, 'Hey, we've got this amazing
thing, even built with some of your parts, and what do you
think about funding us? Or we'll give it to you. We just want
to do it. Pay our salary, we'll come work for you.' And they
said, 'No.' So then we went to Hewlett-Packard, and they said,
'Hey, we don't need you. You haven't got through college yet.'"
-- Apple Computer Inc. founder Steve Jobs on attempts to get
Atari and H-P interested in his and Steve Wozniak's personal
computer.
"Professor Goddard does not know the relation between
action and reaction and the need to have something better
than a vacuum against which to react. He seems to lack the
basic knowledge ladled out daily in high schools."
-- 1921 New York Times editorial about Robert Goddard's revolutionary
rocket work.
"Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high
plateau."
-- Irving Fisher, Professor of Economics, Yale University,
1929.
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no military value."
-- Marechal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of Strategy, Ecole Superieure
de Guerre.
"Everything that can be invented has been invented."
-- Charles H. Duell, Commissioner, U.S. Office of Patents,
1899.
"Louis Pasteur's theory of germs is ridiculous fiction."
-- Pierre Pachet, Professor of Physiology at Toulouse, 1872
Bu, so much for that. Since I don't want to be left out, here’s
what I predict for the future of marketing:
Marketing companies that understand the psychology of human
nature and are able to uniquely combine art and commerce in
effective persuasive messaging will succeed, no matter what
mediums or technologies are utilized.
I wonder if I'll be right.
dave@h2m.biz
© 2003-2006 H2M Inc. All Rights Reserved.
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